MPS weekly market views: one way or another

Market news and views from the Managed Portfolio Service investment team

In brief

  • Equities finally pick up on the higher interest rates in 2025 story.
  • The Labour Party leaks Budget plans in build up to the announcement.
  • Trump is really trumping in the polls.
Rollercoaster

As our recent comments anticipated, things came to a head this week when equity markets finally reacted (negatively) to the sharp increases we’ve seen in Government bond yields. The US equity market has started to interpret stronger data as good for economic growth but a hinderance on the lower rates later in 2025. New home sales above forecast, lower unemployment claims and expanding private sector activity were notable positives in the US. For now, financial markets continute to reflect  confidence there will be two interest rate cuts in the US this year but next year they may not be cut as quickly.

The polls swinging in Trump’s favour has been widely reported. US equity markets tend to weaken ahead of elections and rally following, with the risk of the unknown being worse than the known outcome. Where are we compared to past elections? Well, in 2016, with Trump’s first election win we saw wider dispersion in markets, with the S&P 500 Index and the Russell 2000 Index rallying. Of course the promise of tax breaks and the subsequent delivery led to a real easing. The rally in US equities in recent months can be attributed to  consumer spending and higher money supply. Trump is unlikely to have levers he pulled in the past, and unlikely to have control of the upper and lower houses following the election. This limits his ability to make changes if he wins. With a few weeks of campaigning to go, there is still a lot to be said and heard so we won’t get ahead of ourselves just yet – however, opportunity may arise!

The fiscal stance in the UK is doing little to provide business optimism. Labour are trying their best not to break promises made only a few months ago, but Thursday’s reaction to comments from our Chancellor about higher borrowing levels have done little to calm bond markets. It is worth noting that higher interest rates tend to be good for the FTSE 100 Index, where a large financials exposure benefits from higher borrowing costs. It seems we may know the Budget before it’s offically announced by this Labour Government.

In Europe, company surveys, also known as purchasing managers indices, reflected the uncertainty we’ve seen for months. French manufacturing provided its weakest survey since 2020. German manufacturing showed slowing order logs. Interestingly, equities have remained upbeat as earnings have beaten expectations and rate cuts look highly likely. For example, Renault led the automotive sector higher on Thursday as it posted record third quarter earnings growth – this doesn’t quite align with corporate surveys. We think political turnover in the year of elections may be swaying the surveys when the reality is much better for the corporates.

Now it may seem like this is a rather downbeat weekly comment, but clearly the earnings season is speaking volumes. We could have noted five or six significant beats and improvements across the UK and Europe this week alongside the banks last week. One thing we know is that political noise is just noise and the economics remain favourable. The Santa rally may have paused for now, but it’s only a pause.

Looking ahead

Next week brings three signifcant events. One is the bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. Whilst rate increases aren’t expected due to recent inflation numbers, it could bring one forward to counteract recent currency weakness. Alongside this is third quarter results from Apple, a significant sign of global consumption and the Chinese economy. Oh, and a UK Budget…. How could we forget?!

How would you rate the information in this article?

Click on a star to rate it.

We are sorry that this post was not useful for you.

Write your comments here:

Tell us how we can improve this post?

Risks

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

The value of stock market investments will fluctuate, which will cause the prices of the funds held in a portfolio to fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

For Investment Professionals only. No other persons should rely on the information contained within. This is a marketing communication.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author at the time of writing and can change; they may not represent the views of Premier Miton and should not be taken as statements of fact, nor should they be relied upon for making investment decisions.

 

Reference to any investment should not be considered advice or an investment recommendation.

All data is sourced to Premier Miton unless otherwise stated.

This article and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts, images (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of Premier Fund Managers Limited and/or Premier Portfolio Managers Limited (“Premier Miton”) or any third party involved in providing or compiling any Information (collectively, the “Data Providers”) and is provided for informational purposes only. The Information may not be modified, reverse-engineered, manipulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without prior written permission from Premier Miton. All rights in the Information are reserved by Premier Miton and/or the Data Providers.

Marketing communication issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227.  Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.

014539/251024

Choose your investor type

  1. Individual investor
    I am an individual, acting on my own behalf or on behalf of a Charity, trust or Corporate, investing in, or seeking information about Premier Miton's range of products and services.
  2. Financial adviser
    I am a financial adviser or similar investment professional, providing investment advice to individual investors
  3. Wealth manager
    I am a discretionary wealth manager, providing investment management and advice to individual investors
  4. Institutional investor
    I am an institutional investor or investment consultant
  5. Shareholder
    I am looking for information about Premier Miton Group plc

Why are we asking this?

By telling us the type of visitor you are, we can show the most relevant and interesting content for you and provide the best possible experience throughout the website. You can read our privacy policy here

You have selected
Disclaimer:

This section of the website and the content it contains is for retail clients only and by persons who are resident in the United Kingdom [who are not US persons]. Professional advisers should refer to the Professional Advisers site.

The content of the pages of this website is for your general information only. It, and the products and services described within it, are subject to change without notice. We shall not be liable to you, or any third party, for any amendment, modification, suspension or discontinuance of any product or service described on our website. Neither we, nor any third parties, provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or appropriateness of the information and materials made available on this website.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk, for which we shall not be liable.

The information contained on this website does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase shares in the funds or portfolios or to provide you with other products or services. Any application or investment must only be made on the basis of the relevant documentation of the investment, such as, for example, terms and conditions. The information on this website does not constitute any investment, tax, legal or other advice. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should always consult with an independent financial adviser before making an investment decision. Any opinion expressed on individual funds, services or products represent the views of the individual at the time of preparation and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation to buy or sell or otherwise trade all or any of the investments that may be referred to.

Website terms of use: Please ensure you have read and accept the full 'website terms of use' before continuing.

Read the full 'website terms of use' >

This section of the website and the content it contains is for professional financial advisers only and should not be relied upon, or circulated to, retail clients. Retail clients should refer to the Individual Investor's site.

The content of the pages of this website is for your general information and use only. It, and the products and services described within it, are subject to change without notice. We shall not be liable to you, or any third party, for any amendment, modification, suspension or discontinuance of any product or service described on our website. Neither we, nor any third parties, provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or appropriateness of the information and materials made available on this website.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk, for which we shall not be liable.

The information contained on this website does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in the funds or portfolio or to provide you with other products or services. Any application or investment must only be made on the basis of the relevant documentation of the investment, such as, for example, terms and conditions. The information on this website does not constitute any investment, tax, legal or other advice. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should always consult with an independent financial adviser before making an investment decision. Any opinion expressed on individual funds, services or products, represent the views of the individual at the time of preparation and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation to buy or sell or otherwise trade all or any of the investments that may be referred to.

Website terms of use: Please ensure you have read and accept the full 'website terms of use' before continuing.

Read the full 'website terms of use' >

The information in this site is solely for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investment professional acting for their own account). This information must not be used or relied upon by anyone that may be considered a “retail investor” by the home regulator of the country from which this site is accessed.

The information contained in this website is directed at persons who are resident in the United Kingdom and complies with appropriate UK legislation and regulations and is not directed at, nor intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted.

The information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation to deal in any investment or fund nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful or in which the person making the offer solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Premier Miton Investors has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

Neither Premier Miton Investors nor any of its group companies or affiliates accepts any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website, to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By clicking accept you acknowledge that your use of this website is subject to our privacy policy, cookie policy and our general legal and compliance information available on our website.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. They may not be offered or sold in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia or offered, sold or transferred to US Persons (as defined below). The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited has not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

“US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”).

The information in this site is solely for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investment professional acting for their own account). This information must not be used or relied upon by anyone that may be considered a “retail investor” by the home regulator of the country from which this site is accessed.  

The information contained in this website is directed at persons who are resident in the United Kingdom and complies with appropriate UK legislation and regulations and is not directed at, nor intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted.

The information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation to deal in any investment or fund nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful or in which the person making the offer solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Premier Miton Investors has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

Neither Premier Miton Investors nor any of its group companies or affiliates accepts any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website, to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By clicking accept you acknowledge that your use of this website is subject to our privacy policy, cookie policy and our general legal and compliance information available on our website.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. They may not be offered or sold in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia or offered, sold or transferred to US Persons (as defined below). The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited has not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

 “US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

 Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”). If those investment products are held by a US Person, a US Tax Resident or a person who does not qualify as a “Non-United States Person” within the meaning of CFTC Rule 4.7, Premier Portfolio Managers Limited shall be entitled to redeem such Shareholder’s entire holdings.

The content you are trying to access is intended for investment professionals only.

Please use the button below to return to the hompage.

Choose your investor type

  1. Individual investor
    I am an individual, acting on my own behalf or on behalf of a Charity, trust or Corporate, investing in, or seeking information about Premier Miton's range of products and services.
  2. Financial adviser
    I am a financial adviser or similar investment professional, providing investment advice to individual investors
  3. Wealth manager
    I am a discretionary wealth manager, providing investment management and advice to individual investors
  4. Institutional investor
    I am an institutional investor or investment consultant
  5. Shareholder
    I am looking for information about Premier Miton Group plc

Why are we asking this?

By telling us the type of visitor you are, we can show the most relevant and interesting content for you and provide the best possible experience throughout the website. You can read our privacy policy here

You have selected
Disclaimer:

This section of the website and the content it contains is for retail clients only and by persons who are resident in the United Kingdom [who are not US persons]. Professional advisers should refer to the Professional Advisers site.

The content of the pages of this website is for your general information only. It, and the products and services described within it, are subject to change without notice. We shall not be liable to you, or any third party, for any amendment, modification, suspension or discontinuance of any product or service described on our website. Neither we, nor any third parties, provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or appropriateness of the information and materials made available on this website.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk, for which we shall not be liable.

The information contained on this website does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or purchase shares in the funds or portfolios or to provide you with other products or services. Any application or investment must only be made on the basis of the relevant documentation of the investment, such as, for example, terms and conditions. The information on this website does not constitute any investment, tax, legal or other advice. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should always consult with an independent financial adviser before making an investment decision. Any opinion expressed on individual funds, services or products represent the views of the individual at the time of preparation and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation to buy or sell or otherwise trade all or any of the investments that may be referred to.

Website terms of use: Please ensure you have read and accept the full 'website terms of use' before continuing.

Read the full 'website terms of use' >

This section of the website and the content it contains is for professional financial advisers only and should not be relied upon, or circulated to, retail clients. Retail clients should refer to the Individual Investor's site.

The content of the pages of this website is for your general information and use only. It, and the products and services described within it, are subject to change without notice. We shall not be liable to you, or any third party, for any amendment, modification, suspension or discontinuance of any product or service described on our website. Neither we, nor any third parties, provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or appropriateness of the information and materials made available on this website.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk, for which we shall not be liable.

The information contained on this website does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in the funds or portfolio or to provide you with other products or services. Any application or investment must only be made on the basis of the relevant documentation of the investment, such as, for example, terms and conditions. The information on this website does not constitute any investment, tax, legal or other advice. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should always consult with an independent financial adviser before making an investment decision. Any opinion expressed on individual funds, services or products, represent the views of the individual at the time of preparation and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation to buy or sell or otherwise trade all or any of the investments that may be referred to.

Website terms of use: Please ensure you have read and accept the full 'website terms of use' before continuing.

Read the full 'website terms of use' >

The information in this site is solely for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investment professional acting for their own account). This information must not be used or relied upon by anyone that may be considered a “retail investor” by the home regulator of the country from which this site is accessed.

The information contained in this website is directed at persons who are resident in the United Kingdom and complies with appropriate UK legislation and regulations and is not directed at, nor intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted.

The information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation to deal in any investment or fund nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful or in which the person making the offer solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Premier Miton Investors has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

Neither Premier Miton Investors nor any of its group companies or affiliates accepts any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website, to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By clicking accept you acknowledge that your use of this website is subject to our privacy policy, cookie policy and our general legal and compliance information available on our website.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. They may not be offered or sold in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia or offered, sold or transferred to US Persons (as defined below). The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited has not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

“US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”).

The information in this site is solely for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investment professional acting for their own account). This information must not be used or relied upon by anyone that may be considered a “retail investor” by the home regulator of the country from which this site is accessed.  

The information contained in this website is directed at persons who are resident in the United Kingdom and complies with appropriate UK legislation and regulations and is not directed at, nor intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted.

The information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation to deal in any investment or fund nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful or in which the person making the offer solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Premier Miton Investors has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

Neither Premier Miton Investors nor any of its group companies or affiliates accepts any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website, to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By clicking accept you acknowledge that your use of this website is subject to our privacy policy, cookie policy and our general legal and compliance information available on our website.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. They may not be offered or sold in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia or offered, sold or transferred to US Persons (as defined below). The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited has not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

 “US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

 Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”). If those investment products are held by a US Person, a US Tax Resident or a person who does not qualify as a “Non-United States Person” within the meaning of CFTC Rule 4.7, Premier Portfolio Managers Limited shall be entitled to redeem such Shareholder’s entire holdings.