Perspectives – The danger of modelling the past to predict the future

In this latest Perspectives podcast, David Jane looks back at historic financial crashes and shares his case as to why natural income looks to be a much more reliable source of retirement income than sophisticated financial models.

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Website terms of use: Please ensure you have read and accept the full 'website terms of use' before continuing.

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The content of the pages of this website is for your general information and use only. It, and the products and services described within it, are subject to change without notice. We shall not be liable to you, or any third party, for any amendment, modification, suspension or discontinuance of any product or service described on our website. Neither we, nor any third parties, provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy, timeliness, performance, completeness or appropriateness of the information and materials made available on this website.

You acknowledge that such information may contain inaccuracies or errors and we expressly exclude liability for any such inaccuracies or errors to the fullest extent permitted by law. Your use of any information or materials is entirely at your own risk, for which we shall not be liable.

The information contained on this website does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in the funds or portfolio or to provide you with other products or services. Any application or investment must only be made on the basis of the relevant documentation of the investment, such as, for example, terms and conditions. The information on this website does not constitute any investment, tax, legal or other advice. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should always consult with an independent financial adviser before making an investment decision. Any opinion expressed on individual funds, services or products, represent the views of the individual at the time of preparation and should not be interpreted as a personal recommendation to buy or sell or otherwise trade all or any of the investments that may be referred to.

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The information contained in this website is directed at persons who are resident in the United Kingdom and complies with appropriate UK legislation and regulations and is not directed at, nor intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted.

The information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation to deal in any investment or fund nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful or in which the person making the offer solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Premier Miton Investors has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

Neither Premier Miton Investors nor any of its group companies or affiliates accepts any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website, to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By clicking accept you acknowledge that your use of this website is subject to our privacy policy, cookie policy and our general legal and compliance information available on our website.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. They may not be offered or sold in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia or offered, sold or transferred to US Persons (as defined below). The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited has not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

“US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”).

The information in this site is solely for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investment professional acting for their own account). This information must not be used or relied upon by anyone that may be considered a “retail investor” by the home regulator of the country from which this site is accessed.  

The information contained in this website is directed at persons who are resident in the United Kingdom and complies with appropriate UK legislation and regulations and is not directed at, nor intended for distribution to, or use by, persons in any jurisdiction in which the dissemination of such investment related information is not permitted.

The information or opinions contained herein should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation to deal in any investment or fund nor shall any such investment products or services be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful or in which the person making the offer solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

Premier Miton Investors has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

Neither Premier Miton Investors nor any of its group companies or affiliates accepts any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website, to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By clicking accept you acknowledge that your use of this website is subject to our privacy policy, cookie policy and our general legal and compliance information available on our website.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. They may not be offered or sold in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia or offered, sold or transferred to US Persons (as defined below). The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited has not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

 “US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

 Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”). If those investment products are held by a US Person, a US Tax Resident or a person who does not qualify as a “Non-United States Person” within the meaning of CFTC Rule 4.7, Premier Portfolio Managers Limited shall be entitled to redeem such Shareholder’s entire holdings.